Research
Published working papers
Job market paper: The long shadow of persistent disadvantage
This paper is my job market paper for the 2025 process.
This paper uses powerful English administrative data to explore the link between economic disadvantage in childhood and labour market outcomes. Having admin records for all schools allows us to construct a more granular measure of disadvantage by combining free school meals eligibility records throughout compulsory education. Michelmore and Dynarski (2017) explore the 'gap within the gap' on education outcomes in Michigan, United States. We go further than this exploring the link with earnings age 25, plus we are able to split those never eligible into a smaller groups (allowing a more refined estimate of disadvantage). We are also able to explore the education to labour market trajectories of individuals and see the importance of these in explaining labour market outcomes. There are large differences in earnings between those in disadvantage for a short period (e.g. 1-2 years) versus those in disadvantage for a long period (10-11) years. This persists after controlling for other demographics, attainment at school and the education to labour market trajectories.
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Link: TBC
Walking the line: Does crossing a high stakes exam threshold matter for labour market outcomes?
This paper offers new insight into the link between success in high stakes exams and subsequent education and labour market outcomes. It is the first study to look at the impact of crossing an important high stakes threshold on both academic and vocational education choices and ultimately early career labour market outcomes. It does so by comparing those either side of an important threshold in the English education system at the end of compulsory schooling which was commonly regarded as the minimum benchmark for continuing into post-compulsory education. I find that crossing this threshold led to a 5.8-6.0 percentage point increase in the proportion of men and women continuing to the next education level. Crossing the threshold had a positive effect on earnings for women (3.4 percent) but not for men. The results for men can be explained by the fact that more marginal learners, who just crossed the threshold, were more likely to go on to low return academic qualifications, while those not crossing the threshold instead opted for relatively high return vocational education. I extend the analysis to other thresholds to test the uniqueness of the salience of this threshold on labour market outcomes (for women) and find that crossing other thresholds leads to better labour market outcomes. Equally, this can be explained by women crossing different thresholds leading to a greater likelihood of continuing in academic education, which has positive returns.
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Working papers - in progress
Education to labour market transitions for individuals with special educational needs (SEN)
This paper focuses on education to labour market transitions for individuals with special educational needs (SEN). It uses powerful English admin data to track individuals completing compulsory education and moving into the labour market. We are able to examine differences by complexity of SEN and the type of need. Few studies have focused on SEN complexity and, as far as we are aware, there are no quantitative studies exploring post compulsory outcomes by need type. There are large variances in outcomes by need type and even within similar need types. For example, within 'physical needs' those with a hearing impairment have more positive trajectories and outcomes than individuals with a physical impairment. Whilst individuals with specific learning difficulties tend to have more positive trajectories and outcomes than individuals with autism spectrum disorder.
The returns to labour market trajectories
A large literature exists on education to work transitions using sequence and clustering analysis on survey data. We are the first to apply these techniques on admin data. The size, granularity and completeness of the admin data offer new opportunities such as focusing on smaller groups that were not possible before due to small sample size (e.g. minor ethnic groups, special educational need type and free school meals history). However, it also comes with challenges, particularly around methodology and statistical software. We use a 'new' empirical approach to overcome these challenges and carry out sequence and clustering analysis on English admin data. The paper outlines the methodology and shows results on the data.
Other publications
Post-16 education and labour market activities, pathways and outcomes (LEO)
A government research report focusing on analysis of post-16 education and labour market activities and outcomes based on different socioeconomic, demographic and education factors. It uses powerful English administrative data to track individuals post compulsory education to labour market pathways.
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Link: Post-16 education and labour market activities, pathways and outcomes (LEO) - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)
R-shiny interactive tool on English education to labour market activities and earnings trajectories
R-shiny interactive tool showing the post-16 education and labour market activities, pathways and outcomes of individuals leaving school in England. The 'dashboard' brings to life findings from report (see above) containing analysis of post-16 education and labour market activities and outcomes based on different socioeconomic, demographic and education factors. Users can map main activities or earnings trajectories for groups of interest.
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A government research publication focusing on analysis of post-16 education and labour market activities and outcomes for children that were in care. Descriptive analysis is used to focus on these transitions from education into the labour market.
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